It’s worth remembering that this isn’t just another rivalry in sport. This is the rivalry in sport, perhaps bigger than any other in any sport.
All of which makes this not only such an important match but a truly mouth-watering one which can’t be missed! And we’re certainly not giving it a miss when it comes to having some good bets on it.
The match will take place at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Sunday, October 23 at 1:30 IST and should be an absolute cracker, so keep on reading.
Up next are our cricket betting tips for this match and it may surprise you to read that we’re backing Pakistan as outsiders.
But there are good reasons for that.
They include Pakistan’s recent improvement on the head-to-head record, that they have a full squad of players to choose from and that there’s rain around which could help their cause. We’ explain due course why that’s the case.
But there are other reasons, too. And we’ll talk you through all of them.
Recommended Bet: Back Pakistan to win @ 2.6 with BlueChip
If when betting on cricket, you give a lot of importance to head-to-head records, then India are surely the bet for you at 1.55.
As we see below, they’re 8-3 up on the head-to-head which is quite a significant lead over the years.
And if you want further proof that India at least justify favouritism, there’s also the fact that they’re currently ranked the Number 1 side in the world on the ICC rankings, testament to their consistency.
But then again, there are good reasons to ignore all that and go with the outsiders.
For starters, Pakistan may be behind them on the head-to-head but they have now beaten them twice in the last three matches between the two: crucially at last year’s World Cup, then also picking up a win at the recent Asia Cup.
They beat them in the Super 4 stage, although India did admittedly beat them the first time they played them in the tournament.
So it’s actually Pakistan who have had the upper hand over the last year.
And if India are ranked Number 1 in the world, then Pakistan aren’t too far behind at Number 3.
Then there’s the team selection issue.
India, remember, are missing Jasprit Bumrah and Ravindra Jadeja and those are two very big sets of shoes to fill.
Pakistan aren’t missing anyone significant now that Shaheen Shah Afridi is back and ready to play, albeit maybe a little rusty which is understandable for a fast bowler trying to find his rhythm.
So Pakistan can choose their best side, India can’t.
And finally there’s the rain issue (see venue and conditions section).
A shortened match generally gives the outsider a better chance of winning than a full one because the element of randomness comes into it more.
But more to the point, Pakistan winning the toss and being able to chase would make it much closer to a 50/50 match. So it obviously makes sense to go with them at odds of 2.6 rather than India as warm favourites.
And if you haven’t read it already, here’s our BlueChip review.
Haris Rauf ticks every box as Pakistan’s potential top wicket-taker.
He has lots of experience of playing in Australia thanks to three years playing in the Big Bash.
He has an excellent record in the BBL with 30 wickets in 18 matches, which is superb.
Rauf has a strong record in T20Is with a healthy strike rate.
If we want to be really fair about all this, what he doesn’t necessarily have is the best-possible record against India. But that’s the only real negative and can easily be overlooked.
Betway make Shaheen Shah Afridi the 3.75 favourite and you can see why: because he does have an excellent record in general, and also against India specifically.
But let’s remember he’s just coming back from an injury so could be a tad rusty.
The other big threat is Shadab Khan but assuming the rain comes, a slippery ball and a greasy surface isn’t exactly what he’d be hoping for.
All of which means you can see why we’re so keen on Rauf to come good.
It’s been an eventful year or so since India crashed out of last year’s World Cup at the Group Stages.
Virat Kohli resigned the captaincy and Rohit Sharma took over.
Dinesh Karthik and Rishabh Pant have been fighting it out all year for the keeper/batsman spot.
Sky Yadav has been brilliant and is now the number 2 ranked T20 batsman in the world and Hardik Pandya has become one of the world’s best all-rounders in the format.
Hardik is back bowling, batting beautifully at five and led Gujarat to the IPL title in 2022 in what was his first-ever full-time spell as a captain.
Axar Patel has improved considerably and has become a vital cog as a reliable spinner and occasional match-winner with the ball.
They’ll certainly need him at his best because there’s no Ravindra Jadeja, who is injured.
As is Jasprit Bumrah, their main strike bowler and death bowler, who has been struggling with injury on and off for months now.
He’s been replaced in the squad by Mohammed Shami, originally a stand-by player, and they’ll need all his experience here.
So he’s likely to play but there are still one or two doubts around other positions.
Will they play Karthik, Pant or both?
In addition to Axar Patel, will they play Ravi Ashwin, who gives them an extra batting option? Or Yuzvendra Chahal, who is the more likely wicket-taker?
India have been pretty decent this last year and they’ve certainly played plenty of T20I cricket.
Since last year’s World Cup they played 33 matches, winning 24 of them.
Highlights included beating England in a 3-match Series in England and getting the better of the West Indies 7-1 across two different Series. They also got the better of Australia in India.
But an early exit at the Asia Cup was the second time after last year’s World Cup that they went in as favourites and couldn’t get the job done, or even make the final.
So there will be a few question marks about their recent performances under pressure in the biggest tournaments.
Had Pakistan not dropped Matthew Wade in that semi-final last year and they would have been in the final. And if they’d been in the final, they may well have won it.
But we’ll never know.
Since then they’ve played 22 matches, winning 13, which is decent enough.
They thrashed the West Indies 3-0 and also got the better of New Zealand, winning two of the three games they played against them in the recent Tri-Series that also involved Bangladesh.
But they lost a superb 7-match Series 4-3 to England at home and worst of all, lost the Asia Cup final to Sri Lanka. And this despite having the UAE toss bias on their side.
So there’s a bit of a worry that they keep losing the big matches when they’re under the most pressure. Let’s see if that happens here again.
Babar Azam had a bit of a dip in form during the Asia Cup but hit back with three fifties in his last nine T20Is. Mohammad Rizwan has been his usual brilliant consistent self and is now the Number 1 T20I batsman in the world.
Shadab Khan has emerged as a genuine all-rounder with some fine batting displays, as has Mohammad Nawaz who’s been tight with the ball and explosive with the bat.
But the really good news for them is that Shaheen Shah Afridi is fit again after an injury that kept him out of the Asia Cup.
A pace attack of Afridi, Harris Rauf and youngster Naseem Shah could be very potent indeed.
In the India vs Pakistan head-to-head it’s 8-3 to India.
That looks very one-sided but Pakistan have at least been fighting back.
They famously beat India in a World Cup for the first time last year and then it was one-a-piece when they played each other in the Asia Cup in September, India winning the first time round and Pakistan winning the second time round.
But India are still considerably ahead and it will be interesting to see to what extent that may prey on the Pakistan players’ minds.
Venue & conditions
The MCG is one of cricket’s most iconic grounds and until recently, the biggest cricket stadium in the world in terms of number of spectators.
But what about in terms of runs?
Australia played here twice in 2022 against Sri Lanka. In the second of them, Australia posted 154/6 which Sri Lanka chased with just one ball to go. The match before that saw Sri Lanka post just 139/8, which Australia chased with 11 balls to spare.
In fact, that 139 is significant because it’s the exact average first innings score at the MCG. So it’s not a high-scoring ground.
What’s also worth noting is that of the 17 completed T20I matches here, 10 were won by the chasing side. So the early advantage goes to the side bowling first.
But the most important factor of all on the day is rain.
There’s only a 60% chance the match will be completed at all and even if it is, there’s a high chance that there could be a reduction in the number of overs.
If the match is reduced to say 16 overs-a-side then that obviously makes it very hard to predict what a first innings total might be.
